When the Energy Cluster at IFZO began working on the “Fragmented Transformations” project, the primary transformation under examination was the gradual decarbonisation of regional energy systems: the shift from hydrocarbon dependence to green energy in pursuit of a “net-zero” agenda. Almost a year ago, the invasion of Ukraine proved a catalyst for a second transformation. As all regional states unequivocally voiced their support for Ukraine and Finland and Sweden initiated NATO membership bids in a new security environment, the role of Russia in regional energy systems has ushered in a second transformation: one where the threat of Russia to regional energy systems has been realised and the process of disengagement from dependency on Russian energy supplies has been accelerated; where sanctions and suspensions of supplies have reshaped energy flows and markets; and where energy security, the affordability of supplies, has come to the fore.

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